Early voting surge may not translate into higher overall midterm turnout, says MIT scholar

Nearly 21 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, which tracks voting by mail and in person. While the figure suggests strong early participation, experts caution that it may not lead to higher overall turnout.

Charles Stewart, a political science professor at MIT and director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told NPR's Morning Edition that many early voters would likely have voted on Election Day anyway. He said the increase reflects both voter enthusiasm and the substantial campaign spending aimed at encouraging supporters to vote early.

"It also kind of reflects the large amount of money that's in this campaign that's going into retail politics, going door to door, and just making sure that supporters are energized," Stewart said.

Stewart noted shifts in voting patterns between the parties. Democrats continue to lead in mail voting, though the gap has narrowed as more Democrats opt for early in-person voting. Republicans retain a slight edge in early in-person voting, but that advantage could also shrink.

He highlighted notable early voting activity in Maine and Iowa, states that have not been central battlegrounds in recent cycles, attributing the rise to both voter enthusiasm and targeted campaign outreach in traditionally less active regions.

In a conversation with NPR's A. Martinez, Stewart also addressed concerns about the U.S. Postal Service and President Trump's opposition to mail voting, discussing how these factors may be influencing voter behavior and the continued relevance of polls despite their limitations.