Spain's snap election could shift balance of power in EU institutions
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Analysts say a loss for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez may weaken the Socialists' influence in the European Council and complicate the governing coalition supporting Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
A defeat for Spain’s prime minister in the upcoming snap election could reduce the European Parliament’s Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group’s leverage in Brussels, senior S&D lawmakers told POLITICO. Sánchez, the only socialist-aligned leader of a large EU member state, has traditionally acted as a centre-left counterweight to a Council dominated by centre-right parties, and his government’s backing has helped Spanish MEPs steer group positions.
If the centre-right People’s Party wins and forms a coalition with the far-right Vox party, the S&D expects its ability to shape Council decisions to diminish. “There might be a temptation to look more critically at Council positions if there is no longer a Socialist prime minister of a large country,” said René Repasi, head of Germany’s SPD delegation in the Parliament.
Another senior S&D member said Sánchez’s presence had helped “balance” outcomes at the EU leaders’ table and warned that his absence could unsettle the informal alliance of the S&D, liberal parties and the centre-right European People’s Party that underpins Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s legislative agenda.
The S&D, which has lost ground after the 2024 European elections shifted the Parliament to the right, now faces a scenario in which its largest national delegations – from Italy, Romania and France – would be in opposition at home. Only junior coalition partners in Germany and Austria, together with Denmark’s Social Democrats, would remain in government.
Without a heavyweight prime minister from a major EU country, von der Leyen could encounter stronger pressure from centre-right lawmakers who have been cooperating with far-right groups. Repasi added that a formal alliance between Spain’s People’s Party and Vox “will drive us even more apart.”
The election also coincides with negotiations on the EU’s seven-year budget (the Multiannual Financial Framework). A Commission official warned that Spain’s political uncertainty could delay the process, while the European People’s Party’s budget chief, Siegfried Mureșan, cautioned against using the election as a pretext for further postponements.