Steelers favored over Browns in Week 4 fantasy matchup
Analysts project a 21-18 Steelers win over the Browns and recommend starting Jaylen Warren and DK Metcalf for Pittsburgh, while suggesting Quinshon Judkins and KC Concepcion for Cleveland.
The Thursday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns is set for a sub-40 point total, with the Steelers listed as 2.5-point favorites. A betting model predicts a 21-18 victory for Pittsburgh.
For fantasy owners, the Steelers’ passing game is considered low-value despite quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ high number of dropbacks. Rodgers completed 56% of his passes on Sunday and no receiver recorded more than six targets. Wide receiver DK Metcalf scored a touchdown but advanced metrics remain modest, and the return of Michael Pittman is not expected to improve the passing outlook. Tight end Pat Freiermuth continues to receive targets, though competition from rookie Roman Wilson could reduce his volume.
Running back Jaylen Warren is highlighted after stepping in for the injured Rico Dowdle. Warren accounted for 90% of the Steelers’ backfield touches and posted 176 scrimmage yards on 20 carries. Dowdle’s status is uncertain after two consecutive game absences. The analysis recommends starting Warren (RB11) and Metcalf (WR30), while sitting Rodgers (QB29) and Pittman (WR60). Freiermuth (TE21) and Wilson (WR75) are noted as potential sleepers.
On the Browns side, quarterback Deshaun Watson’s performance is described as inconsistent, with a 14.6% off-target rate and low air yards per attempt. Watson attempted 30 passes on Sunday, primarily targeting KC Concepcion and Harold Fannin. Both receivers are suggested as viable starts in points-per-reception formats, while deep-threat Denzel Boston is labeled a high-risk, high-reward option.
The Browns’ rushing attack is limited by a low-ranking offensive line, resulting in a bottom-five ground performance league-wide. Running back Quinshon Judkins is projected as a third-string option, with his usage dependent on the health of Raheim Sanders. The recommendation is to start Judkins (RB22), Concepcion (WR46), and Fannin (TE9), and to sit Watson (QB25). Boston (WR43) is identified as a sleeper.
Overall, the analysis favors the Steelers’ defensive pressure against Watson and notes the Browns’ reliance on a run-heavy approach that may struggle against Pittsburgh’s pass-rushing scheme.