AI model projects Week 4 NFL game outcomes and betting lines
An AI system that blends four NFL power ratings generated predictions for each Week 4 matchup, including straight-up winners, against-the-spread picks and over/under totals.
The Cleveland Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 on Thursday night, moving to a 3-1 record. An AI model that combined ESPN's FPI, FTN Fantasy's DVOA and two other power ratings simulated the final scores of all Week 4 games and identified the likely straight-up winner, the against-the-spread (ATS) favorite and the total points outcome.
For the Indianapolis Colts versus Washington Commanders in London, the model projected a 26-25 Colts win but suggested the Commanders would cover the four-point spread and that the game would go over the 48.5 total. In Baltimore, the Ravens were forecast to beat the Tennessee Titans 28-17, with the Titans covering the 12-point spread and the total exceeding 42.5.
The Buffalo Bills were expected to edge the New England Patriots 26-19, covering the 6.5-point spread, while the total was projected under 48.5. The Jacksonville Jaguars were projected to win a close game against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-23, covering the spread, with the total under 51.5.
The model gave the New York Giants a 22-20 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, recommending the Giants to cover the spread and the total to fall under 44. In Chicago, the Bears were forecast to beat the New York Jets 25-20, covering the spread and pushing the total over 43.
A narrow 25-24 win for the Houston Texans over the Dallas Cowboys was projected, with the Cowboys covering the three-point spread and the total slightly over 48. The Los Angeles Rams were expected to win 23-21 at Philadelphia, with the Eagles covering the spread and the total over 43.
The Green Bay Packers were projected to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-18, covering the spread and the total slightly over 39. The Minnesota Vikings were forecast to beat the Miami Dolphins 26-14, covering the 10.5-point spread and the total over 39.
In Las Vegas, the Raiders were expected to cover the 4.5-point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs, with the total under 47.5. Seattle was projected to beat Los Angeles 26-18, covering the spread and the total over 42.5.
San Francisco was forecast to win over Denver 27-20, covering the 2.5-point spread and the total under 48. Detroit was projected to edge Carolina 27-26, with the Panthers covering the spread and the total over 51.
Finally, New Orleans was expected to defeat Atlanta 25-22, covering the spread and the total under 47.5.