Finnish Defense Minister Says Ukraine Holds Advantage and Calls for Mutual Energy Ceasefire

Finland's defence minister Antti Stubb told a Wednesday interview that Ukraine is "on top" on the battlefield and that the overall situation is better than a year ago. He noted that Russian forces have captured about 900 kilometres of Ukrainian territory this year, while Ukrainian forces have reclaimed roughly 800 kilometres, describing the front as a stalemate in terms of land gains.

Stubb said the casualty ratio favours Ukraine, estimating one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian soldiers, and warned that Russia will not achieve victory. He added that President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump both want peace and that Russian President Vladimir Putin must be brought to the negotiating table.

"If Ukraine doesn’t hit oil refineries, then Russia should not hit energy and electricity installations in Ukraine, especially as winter is coming," Stubb said, emphasizing that any cease-fire on energy targets must be reciprocal. He acknowledged that Russia has continued strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure while Ukraine has targeted Russian oil refineries and logistics hubs, which he described as key revenue sources for Moscow's war effort.

Stubb reiterated Ukraine's three immediate priorities: modern air-defence systems, reinforcement of energy infrastructure before winter, and financial assistance. He referenced a recent Finnish aid package of about €300 million focused on air-defence, and called on countries possessing Patriot and similar anti-ballistic systems to provide support.

Regarding the production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine, Stubb said he lacked the latest details but welcomed recent meetings between Zelensky and Trump, saying they give the U.S. president a direct view of battlefield conditions. He suggested that Trump's renewed engagement of his negotiators could signal a more active U.S. role in peace talks.