Danish intelligence warns of possible limited Russian attack on NATO member within months

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned on Thursday that Russia may carry out a limited military attack against a NATO member in the coming months, describing the threat as "low but growing." The agency said the Kremlin appears more willing to take risks after more than four and a half years of war in Ukraine and could target critical infrastructure supporting Kyiv with long-range weapons.

"A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia's part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," the DDIS report stated.

The service added that such an attack would aim to divert European resources from Ukraine and create division within NATO if the alliance failed to coordinate a collective response. While it found no current evidence of an imminent full-scale invasion, DDIS could not completely rule it out.

The assessment also noted the possibility of Russia deploying a small number of troops, potentially without national insignia, into NATO states bordering Russia, though such a buildup would be difficult to conceal and would require several months of preparation.

Poland recently reported a fire at a Starlink ground station, which its deputy prime minister said might align with Russia's new doctrine of attack, though responsibility has not been confirmed. DDIS warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid warfare, including major cyberattacks and sabotage operations that could cause significant civilian casualties.

NATO members sharing borders with Russia include Finland, Norway, Poland and the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.