Swedish centre-left bloc leads narrow margin in pre-election polls
Three recent polls show Sweden's centre-left opposition coalition holding a slight edge over the governing alliance ahead of the September 11 parliamentary vote.
Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc is ahead of the incumbent right-wing government in three opinion polls released on Friday, two days before the parliamentary election that many view as a test of the ruling coalition's partnership with the Sweden Democrats. The surveys by Ipsos, Demoskop and Indikator place the four left-leaning parties at 49.3%-50.8% of the vote, translating to 175-180 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag. By contrast, the governing alliance, which includes the Sweden Democrats, is projected to receive 47.6%-49.0%, or 169-174 seats, according to data from Swedish Radio and newspapers Aftonbladet and Dagens Nyheter.
Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson remains the favourite to become prime minister again, while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson heads the centre-right Moderates. The left-leaning bloc has consistently led in polls this year, with most recent figures suggesting a margin of about ten seats, though one poll shows a single-seat difference, echoing the close result of the 2022 election.
The centre-left coalition is divided over which parties should join a potential government, with the Centre Party and the Left Party each refusing participation if the other is included. Disagreements also cover policy issues such as a billionaire tax and the construction of new nuclear reactors, raising the prospect of prolonged coalition talks or a minority government.
Both blocs support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, endorse military rearmament, and propose measures to ease the cost-of-living pressures on households. The campaign has touched on welfare, immigration and crime, but no single issue has dominated, according to political analysts. > "Nothing has really stuck, it's been sort of unsatisfactory in that sense," said Nicholas Aylott, associate professor at Sodertorn University.
The Social Democrats remain the largest single party with 27.4%-29.7% support, down from 30.3% in 2022, while the Sweden Democrats, the governing bloc's strongest partner, hold 18.3%-19.0%, a slight decline from their 2022 share.