Oil Prices Likely to Rise as Chinese Demand Returns and Middle East Shipping Risks Persist

Global crude oil prices are expected to continue climbing as inventories shrink and China resumes higher import levels, Energy Aspects founder and market intelligence director Amrita Sen told CNBC. She said intensified shipping risks in the Middle East, including tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi activity in the Red Sea, are constraining supply to Asian refiners, which could force them to cut processing if disruptions persist. > "If Hormuz cancellations and delays persist, the only option for Asian refiners is to reduce runs," Sen said. Sen added that after a brief increase in Hormuz oil flows in August, shippers have become cautious again amid renewed hostilities. She described the market as having reached an "inflection point" and moving toward an "upward spiral" for crude and refined products. In a separate interview, she estimated China will import about 10 million barrels per day of crude this month, roughly 3 million barrels per day more than in June when imports fell to a decade low. The combination of China's buying resurgence and rapid global inventory drawdowns—about 120 million barrels in the past two weeks, according to Sen—are contributing to higher price levels. On the day oil prices first rose above $100 a barrel since July, Sen said these factors are driving the market toward a "significant leg higher" trajectory. Early Friday trading suggested the weekly average could stay above the $100 mark for the first time since May.