Tropical Storm Marie expected to bring limited rain and surf to California over Labor Day weekend

Forecasters are monitoring Tropical Storm Marie as it approaches the West Coast, with the most likely impacts limited to humid air, cloud cover and elevated surf rather than a direct landfall. Climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources said, "No, a hurricane is almost certainly not going to make landfall in Southern California," and added that indirect effects are plausible later in the week.

The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles noted a very small chance of more than two inches of rain, while a greater likelihood exists for the region to remain dry or receive only light to moderate precipitation over the Labor Day weekend. Forecast models diverge, with some projecting the storm moving northward through Southern California early next week and others showing it turning westward away from the coast.

Swain also referenced two other Pacific cyclones, Hurricanes Lowell and Karina, which are expected to affect Hawaii more than the mainland. He recalled that the last significant tropical cyclone impact on California occurred in 2023 when Hurricane Hilary, after weakening, produced record rainfall and flooding. Historically, only one intact tropical storm has made landfall in California, near Long Beach in 1939.

In the Bay Area, meteorologist Joe Merchant explained that a weak cold front, not the tropical system, is responsible for the forecasted summer rain. He said the front will move eastward later in the week, and the tropical system’s track is expected to shift more westward, limiting its impact.

Coastal officials warn that the storm could generate notable swells, high surf, minor coastal flooding and beach erosion along Southern California’s shoreline during high tides.