AfD Leads Saxony-Anhalt Election Polls, Faces Coalition Blockade and US Ties
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to win about 42% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, but a coalition of other parties could keep it out of power amid scrutiny of its extremist label and links to the U.S. MAGA movement.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is ahead in polls for Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, with the Infratest dimap survey estimating the party at roughly 42% of the vote. A victory would give the far-right its first absolute majority in a German state since World War II, though other parties together hold a combined 54% in the same poll.
German intelligence has classified the AfD as extremist because of its anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, and mainstream parties maintain an informal “firewall” that excludes the AfD from coalition talks. If the party falls short of an outright majority, a coalition of the other parties could block it from governing the state.
The AfD has sought contacts with the United States’ MAGA movement, adopting slogans such as “Make Germany Great Again” and arranging meetings between co-leader Alice Weidel and U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance. The party’s foreign-policy spokesperson, Markus Frohnmaier, has praised President Donald Trump’s immigration stance while criticizing some of his foreign-policy actions.
“I think there is ideological alignment on key issues, and I think the AfD is also learning from the MAGA movement,” said Almut Möller, director for European and global affairs at the European Policy Centre.
“It would be weird if Donald Trump would protect German interests,” Frohnmaier told CNN, adding that the parties can agree on some points while diverging on others.
AfD candidates also emphasize closer ties with Russia, opposing further aid to Ukraine and advocating the return of cheap Russian gas. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s candidate for state premier, said the party wants good relations with both the United States and Russia while prioritising German interests.
Analysts expect that, if the AfD assumes power, it would focus on cultural and education policies, potentially restricting LGBTQ+ symbols, altering school curricula and increasing police presence, mirroring trends seen in other right-wing governments.
A win would also give the AfD representation in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house, providing a symbolic foothold at the national level despite the state’s modest population of under two million.