Surge in forced recruitment reported as Russia readies possible new mobilisation

Human-rights project Idite lesom documented a sharp rise in cases where Russian security forces detained civilians and compelled them to sign military contracts, beginning in early August. The organization received 14 appeals from individuals who said they were stopped on the street, at work or in police stations and forced to sign contracts with the Defence Ministry.

"There were only isolated round-ups in July, now we are at a peak," said Ivan Chuvilyaev, a representative of Idite lesom.

The reported incidents span locations from Novorossiysk to Birobidzhan, and include pressure on men during document checks, for public drinking, or while returning home. In the Penza region, similar cases have been recorded since June, and prison authorities are reportedly searching remand centres for potential contract soldiers.

Civilian recruiters are also targeting individuals facing financial difficulties, using job ads and personal contacts, Chuvilyaev added. He warned that many only realize the consequences after being sent to the front.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly suggested that the Kremlin is preparing a new mobilisation wave ahead of September parliamentary elections. Western intelligence sources told the Wall Street Journal that mobilisation-readiness drills were held in the Kaliningrad region last month, while Russian state media described unrelated exercises as anti-drone drills.

A coordinator for the German human-rights initiative inTransit, who asked to remain unnamed, said inquiries from Russians seeking to leave the country have risen sharply since July, citing fears of forced conscription and travel restrictions. The coordinator noted that people under investigation or subject to travel bans are also reporting pressure from prison officials to sign contracts.

Since the invasion began in February 2022, Ukrainian and U.S. analysts estimate Russian military losses at about 1.4 million personnel, with up to 450,000 killed. A think-tank analysis projects current monthly losses of more than 30,000, exceeding the roughly 27,000 new contract soldiers recruited each month.

Russian officials have denied any plans for a new mobilisation. Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, said the country does not need mass mobilisation and has no such plans. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described reports of mobilisation preparation as attempts to "stir up the situation ideologically" inside Russia.