NHC lowers development odds for sole Atlantic system as season remains quiet

The National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook listed only one Atlantic system, Invest 96L, a low-pressure area southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Forecasters noted that showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, and while environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, they are expected to deteriorate by the weekend, reducing the system’s chances of forming.

"Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development," the center said.

The probability of development within two to seven days was cut to 60% from 70% the day before. A second disturbance that had been monitored in the central subtropical Atlantic near Bermuda moved into waters deemed unsuitable for development, and the NHC assigned it a 0% chance of formation.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has produced only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal—making it slower than average. The next name on the list is Dolly. NOAA’s latest seasonal forecast projects seven to 13 named storms, with two to six hurricanes and at most two major hurricanes, lower than the climatological average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

The peak of the hurricane season typically occurs from mid-August through mid-October.