Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo shows rapid growth and low detection rates

The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo has surpassed 5,200 confirmed cases and 2,500 deaths, according to data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). Health officials say the epidemic is still expanding and may be three times larger than current estimates.

Yap Boum, head of emergency preparedness and response at Africa CDC, told reporters that only about 30% to 40% of cases have been identified and that less than 10% of new infections are linked to known contacts, far below the 90%-95% threshold typically seen when an outbreak is under control.

The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, has spread to 56 health zones across six provinces, up from three zones at the start. In the previously unaffected Bas-Uele province, two cases were reported in separate locations during the past week and a half. While some areas, such as South Kivu, have not reported new cases for 79 days, overall transmission remains high.

Contact tracing efforts have reached only 16% of the expected number of contacts, with Africa CDC estimating an average of 60 contacts per confirmed case. The agency recorded an 82% tracing rate for 19,630 identified contacts, but many potential contacts remain unknown.

Community deaths now account for about 97% of all reported fatalities, and the overall case fatality rate stands at 46.7%, rising to 68.2% in North Kivu province. Health alerts from the community represent just 20% of total alerts, highlighting challenges in engaging affected populations.

"Only 30% to 40% of cases have been detected," Boum said.

The situation underscores the need for increased surveillance, community engagement, and resources to improve detection and response efforts.