Arizona faces up to 30% cut to Colorado River water, threatening winter salad production

Arizona is set to lose roughly 30% of its Colorado River water supply in 2027 and 2028 under a mandatory two-year plan announced by the Bureau of Reclamation after the seven basin states failed to reach a new agreement. The cuts target the river’s lower-basin allocations and could trigger stricter reductions under a proposed ten-year management plan if the megadrought persists.

Yuma County, which produces about 90% of the United States' winter salad greens, relies on the river for irrigation. "If you cut us off at the knees, or if you restrict the water, it has a national impact," said Jonathan Lines, a Yuma County supervisor, describing the issue as both a national-security and food-security concern.

The region’s advantage stems from its sunny climate and senior water rights, which currently give Yuma priority over other users. "The farmers can probably get their crops planted and irrigate them through April," said Sarah Porter of Arizona State University, but she warned that future allocations are uncertain.

Local growers say they will prioritize fresh produce if further cuts occur, potentially sacrificing rotational crops such as alfalfa, cotton and durum wheat. John Boelts, president of the Arizona Farm Bureau, noted that reduced planting of these crops could affect dairies, ranches and pasta manufacturers that depend on Arizona wheat.

The broader Colorado River system supplies water to about 40 million people in the West and powers hydroelectric plants at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, both now at record low levels. The river’s average flow has fallen from roughly 14.6 million acre-feet historically to about 12.4 million acre-feet since 2000.

Arizona’s water cuts will be met primarily through the Central Arizona Project, which serves Phoenix, Tucson and surrounding areas with junior water rights. Farmers in those regions have already seen farmland go fallow; Nancy Caywood, who runs a family farm near Casa Grande, reported that only a small parcel of alfalfa is currently cultivated.

Some growers are experimenting with drought-tolerant crops such as guayule, a desert shrub that can produce natural latex, in hopes of finding viable alternatives.

Legal challenges are emerging. Nevada has sued to block the federal plan, arguing that lower-basin states face disproportionate cuts while upper-basin states are exempt. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs called the ten-year plan’s options “unacceptable,” though she said the short-term plan offers needed stability. The possibility of an Arizona lawsuit was noted by water-policy experts.

The water reductions underscore the growing strain on the Colorado River, a critical resource for agriculture, municipal supplies and energy generation across the western United States.