US obesity rates may be declining for first time in a decade, researchers say

Recent analyses of large health surveys indicate that the United States may have seen a slight decline in adult obesity prevalence in 2023, the first such decrease in more than ten years. The finding comes from a study of over 16 million adults conducted by epidemiologist Benjamin Rader and colleagues, which aligns with modest reductions reported by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2021 and 2023.

The timing coincides with a rapid rise in prescriptions for GLP-1 agonist drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound, which have more than quadrupled from 2021 to early 2026. These medications, originally developed for type-2 diabetes, promote satiety and slower gastric emptying, leading many patients to lose weight.

"It seemed like the impact of this medicine was bound to show up in the data," Rader said, adding that he is "moderately confident that drugs themselves were having an effect."

Endocrinologist Peminda Cabandugama, speaking for The Obesity Society, noted that the decline likely reflects a combination of factors, including greater use of anti-obesity drugs, post-pandemic lifestyle changes and heightened awareness of weight management.

"There is strong evidence showing that there is a significant decline in obesity," Cabandugama said in a written statement.

However, both researchers stress that a causal link between the medications and the population-wide trend has not been proven. Rader cautioned that it is too early to determine whether the observed dip will lead to a sustained plateau or a longer-term decrease, while Cabandugama highlighted the need for more comprehensive data.

A separate projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation anticipates obesity rates rising to 46.9 % of adults by 2035, based on pre-GLP-1 data. Rader noted that many forecasting models may not account for the newer drugs, but the IHME authors pointed out that only a small share of obese individuals currently use them and that discontinuation rates are high.

Experts agree that even a modest reduction could improve cardiometabolic health, lower rates of type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and related conditions, and lessen pressure on the health-care system. Nonetheless, Rader emphasized that obesity remains a major public-health challenge that requires continued attention, funding and broader access to effective treatments.

"A turning point does not mean that we're suddenly in the clear and that we don't have to worry about this thing anymore," he said.