FAA forecasts U.S. commercial rocket launches to more than double by 2036

The Federal Aviation Administration expects the United States to conduct roughly 4,300 commercial rocket launches between fiscal years 2026 and 2036, more than doubling the current annual cadence of about 200 flights. The agency’s ten-year forecast, released in July, cites growing demand from NASA’s Artemis lunar missions, satellite-deployment constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlink, and an expanding commercial market that includes space tourism and defense contracts.

Launch activity has already surged in the two primary U.S. spaceports. In 2025, Florida’s Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station recorded a combined 109 launches, while California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base logged a record 71 missions, largely driven by SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Both sites are on track to exceed those figures in 2026 as SpaceX prepares Launch Complex 39A for testing of its Starship vehicle, which is slated for NASA’s Artemis lunar endeavors.

NASA’s Artemis program, aimed at returning humans to the Moon and establishing a permanent base by the early 2030s, is a major catalyst for the increase. The agency plans a series of crewed and uncrewed flights, including Artemis III, which could launch as early as 2028, and subsequent missions that will support a $20 billion lunar outpost.

Commercial providers are also scaling up. SpaceX continues to launch Falcon 9 rockets multiple times per week for satellite and crew missions. Blue Origin is rebuilding its New Glenn launch capability after a May explosion, while Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace and United Launch Alliance have announced new vehicle developments and contracts with government and private customers.

Regulatory changes could further accelerate the schedule. The Department of Transportation has proposed exempting commercial launch licensing from certain environmental rules, a move that follows an executive order signed in 2025 to streamline licensing. Critics warn that reduced oversight may affect safety and environmental protection.

To address potential bottlenecks at existing launch sites, the Interior Department is evaluating the conversion of offshore oil and gas platforms into launch pads. Former FAA official George Nield told the Washington Post that repurposing such platforms could alleviate congestion on the coasts.

Industry observers note that the combination of government missions, private investment and regulatory reforms is reshaping the U.S. spaceflight landscape, making frequent launches an emerging norm.