CDC model indicates COVID-19 transmission rising in 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The CDC’s Current Epidemic Trends model released on August 12 estimates that COVID-19 transmission is increasing in 50 states and the District of Columbia, with Iowa the only jurisdiction lacking enough data for a trend estimate. The map released by the agency shows almost the entire country in red, indicating a rise in disease potential.

Compared with the July 22 assessment, which identified growth in 37 states and stable transmission in 11, the latest figures show a nationwide shift. Forty-seven states are classified as "Growing" and three as "Likely Growing," while no state is listed as stable or declining. Large states such as California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Georgia all show upward trends, and many states have a greater than 99 % probability that infections are increasing.

The model does not provide absolute case numbers; it gauges whether transmission is moving up or down, serving as an early indicator of changing disease activity.

"This looks like a pattern that has been documented in the past few years. Late summer/early fall surge of COVID cases seems to be part of the expected pattern of COVID-19 cases that we see. Cases are increasing at a relatively steady pace, they aren't surging dramatically. This is what we have come to expect from COVID-19 now that we are in the 'seasonal' phase and out of the 'pandemic' phase of the disease," said Andrew Pekosz, professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Pekosz added that the trend underscores the importance of booster vaccinations and access to antivirals, and recommended checking for influenza and RSV vaccines as well.

"People should be aware but not alarmed. They should be aware of those who can still get seriously ill, and we should do all we can to protect these vulnerable people: those who are >75, those who are pregnant and seriously immunocompromised and the very young," said Peter Chin-Hong, professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

Lawmakers are concurrently reviewing the federal pandemic response, with recent Senate hearings examining COVID-19-era decision-making. While the CDC cautions that its estimates are based on surveillance modeling rather than direct case counts, the overall direction is clear: COVID-19 transmission is rising across almost the entire United States.