Oil continues to flow through Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian claims of closure

U.S. officials report that the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open, with an estimated 10 million barrels of oil a day moving through a corridor along Oman’s coast that the U.S. military established. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. helped ship more than 15 million barrels on a recent Tuesday, and combined with pipeline exports the total outflow approaches the pre-conflict level of 20 million barrels daily.

A two-week U.S. bombing campaign last month damaged Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance, allowing tankers to navigate at night with transponders off and transfer oil to other vessels. Vortexa chief economist David Wech told CNBC that the recent monthly average was 6-7 million barrels per day, with peaks near 10 million and a single-day high of 14 million.

Analysts say the continued flow of oil reduces Iran’s leverage over the strait and may lengthen the war. Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, wrote that the ability of “barrels getting through” raises the odds of a conflict lasting into 2027 because neither side feels urgent pressure to change the status quo. He described the situation as “managed disruption,” with a permeable blockage, occasional flare-ups and escalatory threats.

Alamariu warned that if Brent crude rises above $105-$110 per barrel, higher fuel prices could push the United States to consider reopening the strait by force. He noted that such thresholds are not automatic triggers but could lead to increased violence.

Other observers, such as Esfandyar Batmanghelidj of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, argue that President Trump’s reliance on economic pressure blurs the line between economic warfare and military conflict, which Tehran may interpret as a sign of U.S. weakness.

The ongoing oil outflow, however, has not eliminated the regional supply deficit, forcing consuming nations to draw down reserves that are approaching critically low levels. The U.S. naval blockade continues to limit Iran’s oil exports, while diplomatic progress remains stalled.