US military effort to keep oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz yields limited results
The Pentagon's operation to escort tankers via a southern channel off Oman has modestly increased shipments but remains far below pre-war levels and carries high costs and risks.
The United States has been using a southern channel off Oman to move oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that Iran has largely blocked since late February. While the effort has helped prevent a sharper rise in global oil prices, the volume of oil shipped remains a fraction of pre-war levels.
U.S. officials told Axios that 40 tankers passed through the channel on Friday night, delivering about 16 million barrels to the market, a notable increase from the three to four vessels per day reported in August. Independent analysts, however, dispute the administration’s figures. "I know the White House claims ... around 15 to 20 vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz per day, yet we've learned the White House math is not very strong," said Petras Katinas, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations centre also reported only a few vessels have openly transited the strait since early August. Experts warn that the covert nature of the operation could provoke Iranian retaliation as the scale grows. "The bigger the Pentagon's operation gets, the more it could attract Iranian attacks," said Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Roughly 20 U.S. Navy warships, including two carrier strike groups, are deployed in the Gulf of Oman to protect the shipments from drones and missiles, a deployment described as resource-intensive. "Time depletes global stockpiles further because there's still a deficit of oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz every day," said Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities, noting that daily flows may be only three to five million barrels, far below pre-war volumes.
President Trump has pledged an "economic D-Day" to cripple Iran, statements that have contributed to recent oil price volatility. He asserted that the United States has "total control" of the region, a claim analysts say reflects a public-relations stance rather than the operational reality. "We are not at that crisis moment that many have feared," Yacoubian added, emphasizing the uncertainty over the sustainability of the current shipping arrangement.