U.S. naval presence boosts alternate shipping route as Iran's grip on Strait of Hormuz wanes

Satellite and transponder data tracked by analytics firm Kpler indicate that over the past two weeks more than 80% of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have used the UN-authorized Omani route, a channel Iran opposes. The shift has limited Tehran's capacity to collect tolls on maritime traffic, a practice it employed earlier in the year.

"It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

U.S. naval patrols have provided protection for ships that continue to cross the strait, prompting many operators to favor the Omani channel despite Iranian warnings. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that combined oil movements through the strait and the alternative route reached roughly 15 million barrels per day during a recent week, approaching pre-conflict levels.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers to move oil out of the Persian Gulf via the strait before transferring it to tankers in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. To avoid Iranian attacks, some vessels have disabled transponders, creating "dark traffic" that is harder for tracking services to monitor.

Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noted that regional actors generally prefer the Omani route and are unlikely to resume toll payments to Iran. He added that Iran's deterrence strategy appears aimed at demonstrating influence rather than achieving full control.

Omani and Iranian officials are reportedly discussing measures to ensure freedom of navigation without U.S. involvement, a development that could further affect shipping patterns in the region.