U.S. Energy Secretary says Middle East oil flows normal, data shows lower volumes

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels and are now close to normal after a U.S.-coordinated plan with Gulf allies to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz or via pipelines.

Data from Kpler, which tracks vessel movements with satellite imagery and transponder information, showed only 84 ships passed through the strait last week, including nine on Sunday, far fewer than the more than 100 daily transits recorded before the conflict. JPMorgan estimates that roughly 4 million barrels per day are currently flowing through the waterway, well below the 9 million barrels per day cited by Wright.

"It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.

Wright’s assertion that 5-7 million barrels per day are bypassing the strait via pipelines aligns with reports that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has redirected about 5 million barrels daily to the Red Sea. However, his claim that 15-20 million barrels per day left the Arabian Gulf region last week exceeds the region’s pipeline capacity and observed ship traffic.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that on Monday only six vessels transited the strait, none of which were crude tankers.

"In theory, the US government with all its technology and all the military assets they have in the region should have the best number on the flow through the strait, but this is hard to verify," said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

Analysts said the administration’s statements appear aimed at influencing oil prices downward. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said the market narrative has been promoted for months despite ongoing disruptions.

Windward Intelligence reported that of the 84 vessels that passed the strait last week, 17 were shadow fleet ships and 10 carried sanctioned cargo, raising questions about how such traffic is accounted for in official estimates.