WHO warns Congo Ebola outbreak may exceed deadliest West African epidemic

The World Health Organization warned Wednesday that the Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo is on track to exceed the deadliest epidemic in history, the 2014-2016 West African outbreak that caused over 11,000 deaths.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that at the current rate the outbreak could eclipse the West African crisis, which spurred global vaccine development efforts. The Congo outbreak, declared on May 15, has already resulted in more than 2,000 deaths among roughly 4,300 confirmed cases, and sequencing indicates it began in February.

The disease is caused by the rare Bundibugyo virus, for which no approved vaccines or treatments exist, although clinical trials of two experimental vaccines and two potential therapies began last month in the Ituri province, the most affected area. WHO also plans to evaluate an existing Ebola vaccine for cross-protection after promising animal studies.

Health officials said the outbreak is spreading faster than response measures can keep up, especially in remote border regions with limited infrastructure, ongoing conflict, and community mistrust. Some health workers have staged strikes over unpaid wages, and misinformation is hampering clinic attendance.

"The outbreak had a big head start, still way ahead of us, and we’re playing catch-up," Tedros said.

WHO’s director for health-emergency alert and response, Dr. Abdirahman Mahamud, projected that the peak could occur within six months under a moderate scenario, but warned that a longer trajectory of nine to twelve months is also possible.

Genetic analysis published in Nature Medicine suggests the virus jumped from an animal to a human, rather than being linked to earlier Bundibugyo outbreaks in 2007 and 2012.