Polls and prediction markets miss Wisconsin and Michigan primary outcomes

State Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-identified democratic socialist, was projected by most public polls to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by roughly 20 points, but she lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by less than one point. The result follows similar polling errors in other 2026 midterm primary contests, including a narrow victory for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Senate primary after polls had shown him leading by double digits, and a decisive win for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota despite earlier polls suggesting a tighter race.

Analysts noted several factors that may have distorted Wisconsin’s polling, such as the state’s open primary system and higher response rates among white progressive voters. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the race was “crazy” and that late-stage dynamics, including reactions to El-Sayed’s win in Michigan, could have shifted support toward Crowley.

Prediction markets also misread the Wisconsin contest. On the Kalshi platform, Hong held a 95% chance of winning on Monday, while Polymarket listed her at 96% odds before polls closed. Both platforms later adjusted odds sharply as results came in. A Polymarket spokesperson confirmed a post describing Hong as a “near-lock” was removed after internal review. Similar over-confidence appeared in Michigan, where markets gave El-Sayed over 90% odds despite his narrow margin.

Commentators expressed frustration with the volatility of market odds. Lakshya Jain, co-founder of SplitTicket, said the rapid swings in Hong’s probabilities were “unjustified” given the vote totals. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour responded that a low probability does not preclude an outcome, noting that a 5% chance should occur roughly one in twenty times. PredictIt’s chief strategy officer Flip Pidot added that markets often mirror public reliance on polls, which can lead to mispricing when poll data are inaccurate.

The mixed outcomes have implications for the Democratic Party’s internal dynamics. While progressive candidates continue to perform strongly in primaries, the polling miss in Wisconsin may temper assumptions about a wholesale shift toward the party’s left wing. Kondik observed that the Democratic establishment remains influential, even as its dominance wanes.