US-Iran tensions over Hormuz risk prolonged stalemate despite Omani mediation
A failed June memorandum and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have heightened naval confrontations, while indirect talks mediated by Oman seek a temporary transit route amid deep strategic disagreements.
The United States, Israel and Iran have entered a new phase of conflict after a June 17 memorandum that temporarily halted hostilities collapsed, leaving the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed by Tehran and global energy markets disrupted.
U.S. Central Command reported that American forces have redirected 48 commercial vessels, boarded two and disabled two others as part of a naval blockade aimed at pressuring Iran.
President Donald Trump described the blockade as a “wall of steel” and warned Tehran that ongoing talks represent its “last chance before decapitation,” while the Treasury Department simultaneously lifted sanctions on three IRGC-linked airlines, sending mixed signals about U.S. intentions.
"Trump’s warning is therefore more likely to be seen in Tehran as psychological pressure designed to force concessions than as an imminent threat of a decapitation strike, while the risk of military escalation cannot be ruled out," said Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.
Iranian officials have denied direct negotiations with the United States but confirmed ongoing discussions with Oman to create a 60-day safe transit corridor that would use both Iranian and Omani waters.
Trade Minister Seyed Mohammad Atabak has also visited Pakistan to explore alternative container routes that could bypass the U.S. naval blockade.
Analysts note that the United States insists any agreement must prevent Iran from controlling commercial navigation through the strait, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas shipments.
"Without freedom of navigation in the strait and vessel movement, this vital corridor utilized by the entire world will be closed," said former U.S. assistant secretary of state Joey Hood.
Experts warn that granting Iran a gatekeeper role could jeopardize the deal, as regional states would likely reject a post-war arrangement that gives Tehran regulatory control over traffic.
The conflict’s duration is further complicated by non-state actors linked to Iran, such as the Houthis in the Red Sea, whose actions are driven by separate domestic dynamics and mutual relationships with Tehran.