Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz Draft Deal Stalled by Internal Factional Disputes

Iranian officials are still debating a draft agreement with Oman that would regulate vessel movements in the Strait of Hormuz, a process slowed by competing factions within Tehran's decision-making apparatus. While some reports say the leadership has signed off on the draft, other sources claim Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not yet given approval, reflecting ongoing internal disagreement.

Analysts identify three main groups influencing Iran's negotiation stance: an anti-concessions faction, reportedly led by IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, which supports talks but opposes any limits on Iranian control; a pro-concessions camp that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, favoring compromise to ease economic pressure; and the ultra-hardline Paydari Front, which rejects negotiations with the United States altogether. All factions agree that Iran must retain a degree of control over the strait, differing mainly on tactics.

The draft arrangement would give Iran a larger role in managing traffic than it held before the conflict. According to a report, inbound vessels would pass through Iranian waters, while outbound ships would use an Omani route coordinated with Iran for a 60-day period while mines are cleared. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi later indicated that outbound traffic might also transit Iranian waters before entering Omani waters, suggesting Tehran seeks broader authority over the entire passage.

Iran appears to be linking any relaxation of strait restrictions to U.S. economic and security concessions. Unnamed Iranian sources told domestic media that Tehran would not reopen the waterway unless the United States halted attacks, addressed alleged memorandum violations, met Iran's conditions and provided guarantees against future military action. A U.S. official briefed to the press said Washington would lift its naval blockade and ease oil-export sanctions if Iran agreed to restore normal traffic.

Separately, Iraq's prime minister Ali al Zaydi is facing pushback from members of the Shia Coordination Framework over anti-corruption and militia-disarmament initiatives, with some officials reportedly withdrawing support to protect their own networks. Iraqi foreign minister Fuad Hussein discussed reviving a pipeline linking Basra to Jordan’s Red Sea port of Aqaba, part of broader regional efforts to develop alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments underscore how internal political dynamics in Tehran and Baghdad are shaping regional maritime and energy strategies amid ongoing tensions in the Gulf.