Brewers acquire pitcher Dustin May, viewed as top available starter by advanced metrics
Milwaukee added right-hander Dustin May at the trade deadline, with analytics indicating he ranks among the best starting pitchers available and could bolster the team's postseason chances.
Milwaukee completed a trade for right-handed pitcher Dustin May, a move the club says is aimed at strengthening its rotation for a potential World Series run. While May’s 4.38 ERA has drawn scrutiny, advanced statistics suggest his underlying performance is stronger. Since the start of May, he ranks eighth among pitchers with at least 70 innings in fielding-independent pitching (FIP), a metric that correlates closely with future results, and his FIP of 2.88 is the best among starters available for trade.
May entered the 2026 season after recovering from two Tommy John surgeries and a torn esophagus, posting a 4.96 ERA and 4.87 FIP in a split season between the Dodgers and Red Sox. In the offseason he altered his sinker grip to a one-seam orientation, helping his fastball velocity return to the 96-97 mph range. The adjustments have produced a high ground-ball rate (56% on his sinker) and low home-run rates, with his cutter generating an average exit velocity of 85.5 mph.
Analysts note that May limits walks and barrels, and his mix of three fastballs, cutter, sinker, curveball and changeup gives him flexibility in sequencing. Baseball America analyst Eli-Ben Porat’s “FIRE” model, which evaluates pitch quality, sequencing and location, predicts the Brewers may increase May’s sinker usage while slightly reducing four-seam fastballs to align with the club’s ground-ball emphasis.
If May can maintain his FIP-level performance, the Brewers view him as a starter capable of handling playoff innings and providing a reliable option against opposing lineups.