Trump May Need to Compromise on Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

U.S. and Iranian negotiators are reportedly close to an agreement that would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which about 20% of global oil passes. The United States has so far rejected any arrangement that would give Iran authority to charge fees or formally control the passage, but analysts say growing economic pressure could force President Donald Trump to make concessions.

"There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis," said David Schenker, a former State Department official now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Former State Department counselor Eliot Cohen warned that yielding ground would be politically difficult for Trump, who views himself as a winner in foreign disputes.

A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described recent cabinet discussions on Iran as "robust and healthy" and said there had been no major internal conflict over the issue. The administration continues to assert that the strait remains open for commercial vessels via a route overseen near Oman, and a U.S. official indicated that any temporary routing would not involve tolls or other charges.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon faces concerns about declining inventories of advanced missile interceptors, prompting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to seek additional funding. Trump has responded to questions about weapons stockpiles by stating the military has "massive amounts" of munitions and that the United States is "in great shape," while also noting that certain supplies are "a little bit tighter."

Recent maritime data show a modest rise in traffic through the strait, with 84 transits last week compared with 45 the week before, still far below the typical pre-conflict level of more than 700 weekly transits. At least two vessels were hit in the waterway in the past week, and several others reported near-misses.

If a deal is reached, it would likely involve ships entering the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route and exiting through an Omani-controlled one, without the imposition of fees, according to an unnamed U.S. official. The outcome could have significant implications for global oil markets and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.