Trump May Need to Compromise to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Analysts Say
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U.S. officials and experts say President Trump could be forced to concede on Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to end the conflict and ease global oil flows, despite his reluctance to appear to lose.
Washington – Negotiators say a settlement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz may require President Donald Trump to make concessions on Iran's role in the waterway, a step the president has so far resisted.
The strait, through which about 20% of global oil shipments normally pass, has been a flashpoint since the U.S.-led war with Iran began over five months ago. Tehran insists on a degree of control and has warned it will not revert to an unrestricted international passage, while the United States has ruled out any arrangement that would allow Iran to charge fees.
"He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a loser," said Eliot Cohen, a former State Department counselor, suggesting that conceding could damage Trump's image. Former State Department official David Schenker, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the growing economic pressure could push the president toward a compromise, noting the urgency of resolving the crisis.
The administration has not disclosed details of recent cabinet discussions on Iran, but a senior official described the talks as "robust and healthy" without a "knock-down, drag-out fight." Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to report shortages of advanced missile interceptors and other munitions, prompting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to seek additional Pentagon funding.
Recent data from maritime monitoring firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence show vessel traffic through the strait rose to 84 transits last week, still far below the pre-conflict average of more than 700 weekly transits. At least two ships were hit in the past week, and several others reported near-misses or warnings from groups claiming to represent Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
U.S. officials say any temporary routing would avoid tolls or other impediments, while the Trump administration maintains opposition to any fee-based arrangement. The outcome could have significant implications for global trade and the upcoming midterm elections.