Trump's prospects dim as Iran Strait of Hormuz talks draw criticism

President Donald Trump said a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be announced within 48 hours, insisting talks with Iran were proceeding well. Reports from Axios suggested the United States, Iran and Oman were preparing a 60-day agreement that would route inbound vessels through a northern lane near Iran and outbound ships through Omani waters, without tolls or fees.

Former diplomats told the Financial Times that even if such an arrangement were reached, it would fall short of the administration’s original goals after the February military action against Iran, which has resulted in 18 U.S. service members killed and hundreds wounded. The focus of U.S. demands has shifted from Iran’s nuclear program and missile development to simply restoring shipping through the strait, a key conduit for about one-fifth of global oil supplies.

"Escalating further risks serious damage being done to regional parties, oil prices going up and harm to the global energy market," said Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, adding that limited missile-interceptor stockpiles and waning public and allied support have left the president with few options.

Ratney warned that any agreement granting "some measure of Iranian control" over the strait would be aggravating for all parties and noted that selling such a deal as a win was becoming increasingly difficult.

"What was once free and unfettered is no longer," former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller said, adding that he sees no way for the administration to extract a meaningful benefit from an Iranian-acceptable agreement.

In response, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly dismissed Ratney’s comments as those of an "irrelevant armchair quarterback" and reiterated that the United States Navy controls the strait and that economic pressure and strikes have left Iran in a degraded state, implying that a deal would be in Tehran’s interest.