Analysts Cite Historical IPO Trends to Advise Caution on SpaceX Stock Purchase
Historical data on large IPOs suggest that SpaceX shares may underperform for several years, prompting analysts to recommend waiting until at least mid-2027 before considering a purchase.
SpaceX is set to release its second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4, but the company’s shares have fallen sharply since the IPO a month ago, prompting investors to weigh the timing of any new purchases. Data compiled by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter shows that firms debuting with at least $500 million in annual revenue have underperformed the broader market by roughly 4 % in their first three years. A separate Jefferies study of the past 26 years found that companies entering the market with valuations above $10 billion typically generate only about a 3.5 % gain in the first year.
While SpaceX has reported operational milestones, such as a successful 13th test launch of its Starship vehicle and a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force for Falcon 9 missions, its capital spending has risen sharply. The firm’s capital expenditures reached $20.7 billion in the most recent fiscal year and hit $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by investments in artificial-intelligence initiatives.
Analysts note that the high price-to-sales ratio—approximately 76 compared with a technology-sector average of about 9—means the stock remains expensive relative to peers. Based on the historical patterns cited, they suggest that investors may want to wait until at least mid-2027, when the share price could be near $156, or even longer, potentially until 2029, before entering a position.
"Even if SpaceX posts a strong second-quarter result, the valuation and historical trends imply that many investors might still prefer to sit out for now," a market commentator said.