U.S. Patriot missile shortage hampers Ukraine's air defense, expert says

Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles is constrained by a shortage of Patriot air-defence missiles, according to retired Army Colonel Robert Hamilton, president of the Delphi Global Research Center. He noted that the Patriot is the only system produced in large numbers capable of high-rate missile interception, and that European allies have even fewer missiles left after early war deliveries to Kyiv.

Hamilton said the United States manufactures about 600 Patriot missiles annually and is one of three licensed producers, alongside Germany and Japan, which produce far less. A $58 billion contract aims to raise U.S. output to 2,000 missiles per year, but the first deliveries under the agreement are not expected until early 2029, with full fulfillment projected for 2032.

He explained that the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) allows NATO partners to purchase equipment from the U.S. on Ukraine’s behalf, but the U.S. stock has fallen from roughly 2,330 Patriots before the Gulf conflict to about 800 now, after expending nearly two-thirds of its inventory in the Gulf and Iran wars. This depletion forces the United States to retain missiles for other theaters, limiting what can be transferred to Ukraine.

Hamilton observed that Ukrainian forces have become efficient, typically using one interceptor per incoming missile, whereas some Gulf allies have fired multiple Patriots at a single target. He mentioned ongoing efforts to supplement the shortfall, including a joint U.S.–Ukrainian project to upgrade S-300 missiles, and a French-Italian SAMP/T system slated for delivery this year, though these initiatives will only produce a few hundred units annually.

He also warned that the high expenditure of other precision weapons, such as ATACMS and the newer PrSM missiles, in the Gulf conflict raises concerns about U.S. readiness for simultaneous conflicts in Europe or the Indo-Pacific.