Tigers likely to receive modest prospect haul if they trade ace Tarik Skubal

If the Detroit Tigers decide to trade right-hander Tarik Skubal before his contract expires, the realistic expectation is a modest return rather than a trade that fully compensates for his value. Baseball America examined seven comparable deals from the past 14 seasons in which teams dealt frontline starters who were either recent Cy Young winners or high vote-getters and were on expiring contracts. In each case, the selling club received roughly three prospects, typically one ranked between 15 and 75 on the Top 100 list and two additional players in the Top 30 range. The only outlier was the 2021 Max Scherzer trade, which also involved a top shortstop.

The analysis notes a steep drop-off in prospect success rates by ranking tier. Top-3 prospects have about a 75 % chance of becoming regular major-league players (10 + career WAR) and over half become stars (20 + WAR). Prospects ranked 26-50 have roughly a 50-50 chance of solid regular-level production, while those in the 51-100 range see star potential dip below 25 % and a higher likelihood of minimal career impact.

Applying this pattern to a potential Skubal trade, Detroit could expect to acquire a handful of mid-tier prospects rather than a top-10 talent, making it difficult to replace Skubal’s immediate on-field value. The historical record suggests the primary goal for the Tigers would be to avoid a severe loss rather than to secure a winning return.