Abandoned SpaceX Rocket Set to Impact Moon, Prompting Calls for Regulatory Action

An empty upper stage of a SpaceX launch vehicle, which carried two commercial lunar landers in January 2025, is expected to collide with the Moon on Aug. 5 at about 8,700 kilometers per hour. After completing its mission, the stage ran out of fuel and entered an unstable orbit that has now decayed into a direct impact near the isolated Einstein Crater.

Scientists say the impact will create a crater 20–30 meters wide and loft a plume of regolith several kilometers high, providing a unique opportunity to validate models of crater formation and dust dynamics on the lunar surface.

The event also underscores the absence of a practical framework for coordinating activities that permanently alter the Moon’s environment. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits national claims of sovereignty, it offers limited guidance on managing debris, protecting cultural sites, or preventing interference between commercial, governmental, and scientific missions.

United Nations bodies, including the Office for Outer Space Affairs and the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, are examining ways to improve information sharing and coordination. Proposals include a voluntary lunar activity registry and a system of “Notices to Lunar Operators” analogous to aviation and maritime safety notices.

Industry analysts note that without such mechanisms, future incidents could damage equipment, scientific experiments, or heritage sites, and could raise liability and diplomatic issues. The upcoming impact, though unavoidable, may serve as a catalyst for strengthening existing legal instruments and operational practices governing lunar activities.