Study estimates maximum human lifespan at 146-194 years despite potential anti-aging breakthroughs

Scientists at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology in Russia have modeled the theoretical upper limit of human longevity if all reversible aging mechanisms were neutralized while somatic DNA mutations continued to accumulate. The model, which kept only these random genetic changes, projected a median lifespan between 146 and 194 years.

The researchers noted that organs with high cell turnover, such as the liver and skin, could theoretically function for thousands of years under these conditions because they regularly replace damaged cells. In contrast, the heart and brain, whose cells divide infrequently, would see lifespan reductions to about 208 years and 194 years respectively due to accumulated mutations in cardiac muscle and neuronal cells.

"We can now not just say that mutations are harmful, but quantify exactly how much they shorten life and compare their contribution with other aging processes," said Ekaterina Khrameeva, the study’s principal investigator, in a press release.

"Our study shows that somatic mutations contribute significantly to aging, but they cannot by themselves explain the observed mortality," added Dmitrii Kriukov, who led the research.

The findings suggest that while somatic mutations play a substantial role, other mechanisms such as loss of proteostasis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and epigenetic changes also limit lifespan. Current average life expectancy in the United States reached 79 years in 2024, still well below the projected median limit and the 122-year record held by Jeanne Calment.