Forecasters see fewer storms but warm waters keep hurricane risk high

Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named system of the 2026 Atlantic season, is expected to move along the northern Gulf Coast, bringing up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds near 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center does not anticipate the storm strengthening into a hurricane.

Seasonal outlooks from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University suggest the total number of storms will be below the long-term average, a trend attributed to a strong El Niño that typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. However, sea-surface temperatures in the storm-forming region of the Atlantic are unusually high, a factor that can increase the potential for powerful storms.

"The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it's warmer than normal," said Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay.

"Overall, very broad brush, when you have warmer waters, that does tend to load the dice towards stronger storms," said Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

Both experts note that while the overall storm count may be lower, the proportion of major hurricanes could rise. The National Hurricane Center's Rhome cautioned that the public should not underestimate the season's potential despite the El Niño influence, urging continued preparedness.

Ready.gov, a portal of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, advises residents to develop evacuation plans, consider the needs of vulnerable neighbors, and review insurance coverage and deductibles before the season begins.