Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX AI Division Valued Near Zero as Shares Fall
Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that SpaceX's AI unit, Grok, may be valued at essentially zero if the stock drops to $100, while the company's overall share price has fallen 28.5% since its IPO.
SpaceX's shares closed at $115.07 on July 24, a 28.5% decline from the $160.95 IPO price and a loss of about $1 trillion in market value from its peak. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that a price around $100 would imply investors assign little to no value to the company's AI division, which includes the Grok chatbot.
The company’s revenue streams are split among its Starlink connectivity service, launch operations, and AI products. In 2025, Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue with $1.19 billion operating income, while the launch segment posted $619 million in revenue and a $662 million quarterly loss. The AI segment reported $818 million in revenue but a $2.47 billion loss for the first quarter of 2026.
Analyst Adam Jonas wrote that many investors “significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” and some assign zero or negative value to the AI business because of high capital expenditures and uncertain economics. The bank also suggested that the gap between bearish sentiment and unchanged fundamentals could present an entry point for buyers if the price falls to $100.
Starlink remains the only profitable division, serving about 10.3 million customers worldwide, while the launch business accounts for roughly 80% of global mass-to-orbit capacity. However, both segments face operational challenges and competitive pressures, and the AI unit contends with intense competition and higher cost structures.