Ukraine drone strikes cut Russian gasoline output, exchange volumes fall by half

Russia’s gasoline market has entered a severe shortage after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries across European Russia. From January to early July 2026, at least 44 attacks targeted refineries, including major plants in Saratov, Kirishi, Kstovo, Samara and Omsk. The strikes have damaged primary processing units, forcing many facilities to curtail or halt crude intake.

According to data from the St. Petersburg exchange (SPIMEX), average daily sales of gasoline and diesel fell from roughly 118,000-150,000 tons in the first quarter to about 80,300 tons in June, a 53% decline from January levels. Prices on the exchange rose by 146% over the same period, while year-on-year volumes were 38% lower and prices 37% higher.

The impact varied by plant. Sales from the Moscow refinery’s delivery bases dropped from about 4,400 tons per day before mid-June attacks to roughly 400 tons afterward. Similar declines were recorded at Taneco in Nizhnekamsk (-56%), Lukoil’s Norsi refinery in Kstovo (-63%), Kinef in Kirishi (-80%) and the Samara group of Rosneft refineries (-65%).

The Russian government responded by lowering the mandatory share of gasoline sold on the exchange from 15% to 10% on July 1, a move that does not explain the earlier volume drop. To alleviate the shortage, Russia has begun importing gasoline, receiving at least 60,000 tons from India and planning monthly imports of around 400,000 tons.

Fuel-sale restrictions have been imposed nationwide, mirroring the timing of the production decline. Officials have not disclosed detailed damage assessments, and the sanctions-induced difficulty in obtaining spare parts is expected to lengthen repair times.