Trump claims Strait of Hormuz reopened, but shipping data shows limited traffic

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been reopened following an agreement reached with Iran on Sunday, adding that vessels loaded with oil were beginning to transit the waterway.

Maritime experts, however, dispute the claim. Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), said the statements from the United States and Iran lack clear details on timing and safe routes, making the security situation "volatile" and the risk of transits "very high." He urged shipowners to continue thorough risk assessments and to prioritize seafarer safety.

Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed no significant movement among the roughly 220 tankers and 500 vessels currently in the Persian Gulf. Lead oil analyst Matt Smith noted that the deal is not expected to be signed until Friday and that normal traffic could take three to four months to resume. He described the situation as a "chicken-and-egg" problem, with insurers reluctant to provide coverage until safe passages are confirmed, further discouraging operators from sailing.

Industry observers cited past periods when limited volumes of crude continued to flow despite blockades. Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan noted that crude and petroleum products still appeared in the strait, while Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group estimated that only 0-10% of normal oil flows were exiting most days, helping to limit price spikes.

Maritime insurers have not indicated a change in coverage for the region, and Skuld confirmed that its policy limits remain unchanged. Larsen added that shipping lines need assurances of mine-free routes and clear guidance on vessel spacing and naval protection before resuming regular transits.

Trump later told French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit that mine-hunting operations were underway and that the strait would be fully open by Friday, a timeline that analysts say remains uncertain.