NOAA Forecasts Likely Emergence of El Niño with Potential for Strong Intensity
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026, with a 96% likelihood of persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, indicating an 82% probability of El Niño conditions developing between May and July 2026, and a 96% chance of continuation through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
El Niño is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to significant global weather variations. Recent observations show near-average sea surface temperatures in these regions, with the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value at +0.4°C.
Subsurface temperature indices have been increasing for six consecutive months, indicating widespread above-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific.
The Climate Prediction Center notes that while there is high confidence in the development of El Niño, there remains substantial uncertainty regarding its peak strength.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with significant global impacts, including shifts in weather patterns, increased global temperatures, and disruptions to marine ecosystems.
The Climate Prediction Center will continue to monitor and provide updates on the evolving conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
