Iranian Leadership Concerned U.S. Strike Could Reignite Protests and Threaten Stability

Iranian officials have conveyed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a U.S. military strike could exacerbate public dissatisfaction, potentially leading to renewed protests and posing a threat to the government's stability. This concern arises in the aftermath of a recent crackdown on anti-government demonstrations, which resulted in significant casualties.

In high-level discussions, officials informed Khamenei that public anger over the crackdown has reached a level where fear is no longer an effective deterrent. They warned that external pressures, such as a limited U.S. strike, could embolden citizens to confront security forces, potentially causing irreparable damage to the political establishment.

A former senior moderate official noted that the situation has evolved since the early January crackdown, stating that "people are extremely angry" and that a U.S. attack could lead Iranians to rise up again. He emphasized that "the wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left."

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have escalated, with the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East, expanding President Donald Trump's capacity for military action. Trump has previously threatened intervention over Iran's crackdown on protests.

Opposition figures have cautioned that "boiling public anger" could result in the collapse of the Islamic system. Former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, under house arrest since 2011, stated that "the river of warm blood that was spilled on the cold month of January will not stop boiling until it changes the course of history." He added, "In what language should people say they do not want this system and do not believe your lies? Enough is enough. The game is over."

Analysts and insiders indicate that while the streets are currently quiet, deep-seated grievances persist. Public frustration over economic decline, political repression, and corruption continues to simmer, leaving many Iranians feeling trapped in a system offering neither relief nor a path forward.

If protests resume amid mounting foreign pressure and security forces respond with force, officials fear demonstrators would be bolder than in previous unrest, driven by a sense that they have little left to lose. One official warned that while people are angrier than before, the establishment would use harsher methods against protesters if under U.S. attack, potentially resulting in a bloodbath.

Ordinary Iranians anticipate a severe crackdown on any further protests. A Tehran resident, whose 15-year-old son was killed in the January 9 protests, stated that demonstrators had merely sought a normal life and were met "with bullets." He added, "If America attacks, I will go back to the streets to take revenge for my son and the children this regime killed."