Hurricane Melissa Intensifies to Category 5, Poses Severe Threat to Jamaica and Surrounding Regions

Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 5 storm, currently positioned just over 100 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, moving at approximately 5 mph. This slow progression is expected to result in prolonged severe weather conditions across the region.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Melissa will make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday, potentially as a Category 5 hurricane, before proceeding to eastern Cuba by Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then moving through the southeast Bahamas or Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. The storm may approach Bermuda by Thursday night or early Friday.

Jamaica is bracing for life-threatening flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds. The NHC warns of up to 40 inches of rainfall in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, leading to catastrophic flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous areas. A storm surge of 9 to 13 feet above ground level is anticipated along Jamaica's southern coast, potentially impacting Kingston, including Norman Manley International Airport.

In Haiti, heavy rainfall is already affecting southern regions, with up to 40 inches expected, leading to similar risks of catastrophic flooding and landslides. Eastern Cuba could experience up to 20 inches of rain, with a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet above ground level along the southeast coast.

Destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica tonight or early Tuesday, with winds potentially up to 30% stronger along windward slopes of mountains and hills. The NHC indicates these winds could cause extensive infrastructural damage and prolonged power and communication outages, isolating communities.

Tropical storm conditions are already present in Jamaica and may persist into Tuesday night. Eastern Cuba is expected to experience tropical storm winds starting Tuesday, with hurricane-force winds arriving by Tuesday evening. The southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos could face tropical storm and hurricane conditions on Wednesday.

Melissa's rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane occurred within 24 hours from Saturday morning through Sunday morning, becoming the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday morning. Historical data indicates that while eight other Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have come within 60 nautical miles of Jamaica, no record exists of such an intense hurricane making landfall there. Only two other Category 5 hurricanes have previously approached this close to Jamaica since the mid-19th century: Allen in 1980 and Ivan in 2004.

Residents in the affected regions are urged to stay informed and follow guidance from local authorities as Hurricane Melissa progresses.