Institute for the Study of War maps Ukrainian counteroffensives halting Russian advances
A new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War shows Ukraine has stopped Russian territorial gains and reclaimed ground in several sectors, while Russian forces make limited progress in other areas.
A recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Ukrainian forces have halted Russian advances and recaptured territory in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka and Lyman sectors over the past six months. The think-tank’s map shows that Russia’s push into Dnipropetrovsk region has been stopped, a Russian salient north of Lyman has been cut, and the Ukrainian “Fortress Belt” in Donetsk Oblast has been relieved of pressure from the northeast.
"Ukraine had a very positive first half of 2026 compared with the previous two years, conducting a series of local counteroffensives and liberating territory from Russian forces," said Giorgi Revishvili, a military analyst cited by the ISW. Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan described the gains as a "pleasant surprise" and noted that separate operations in southern Ukraine liberated roughly 290 square miles.
Russian military bloggers, who often provide unfiltered commentary on Moscow’s battlefield performance, have acknowledged that Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces back to the Zherebets River between September 9 and 11. Open-source intelligence analyst Clément Molin reported that Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps cut the salient north of Lyman and reclaimed more than 77 square miles.
The ISW also notes that Russian forces have achieved limited gains around Kostyantynivka, east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and are likely to focus on establishing footholds in Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka. Analysts warn that autumn weather could reduce concealment for Ukrainian units and that Russia may increase the use of jet-powered drones and other inexpensive strike systems, complicating Ukraine’s air-defence efforts.
Separately, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko said Russian generals have urged President Vladimir Putin to mobilize additional troops, though the Kremlin has denied plans for a large-scale draft. Revishvili cautioned that integrating and training a massive influx of recruits would be challenging for Russia, suggesting any mobilization would likely be gradual.