Sweden's election leaves left bloc with narrow lead as far-right loses ground

Swedish authorities reported that with 95% of ballots counted, the four opposition parties hold a three-seat edge over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing bloc in the 349-seat Riksdag. The Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson and the outgoing conservative premier both said they would explore coalition options, acknowledging that major concessions would be required to secure a governing majority.

Analysts warned that the split could lead to a prolonged stalemate, with the parliament able to vote on a new prime minister as early as Sept. 29. Mats Knutson, a political analyst at public broadcaster SVT, said the situation “paves the way for a long and troublesome process of forming a government, which could end in a snap election.”

The Sweden Democrats, the country’s anti-immigration party, saw its vote share dip to 17.6% from over 20% in 2022, dropping to third place behind the Social Democrats and the Moderates. Annika Freden, an associate professor at Lund University, attributed the decline to the mainstreaming of strict migration policies, noting that “the Sweden Democrats haven’t succeeded in being strong on other issues.”

If the left-wing majority is confirmed, Andersson is expected to seek a coalition with the Greens, the Left Party and the Centre Party, though ideological differences and the Centre Party’s refusal to back any government that includes the far-right could complicate talks. Kristersson indicated he would also approach the Centre Party, but Freden warned that “the centre is fundamentally opposed to entering into an alliance with the far-right, so nothing will come of it.”

Sweden’s political culture, characterized by negotiation and a reluctance to trigger snap elections, suggests both blocs will be pressured to relax some of their “red lines” to avoid another election.