Ukrainian Forces Halt Russian Gains and Push Back Salient Near Lyman, While Russia Considers Large-Scale Mobilization

Ukrainian forces have held Russian troops to near-zero net gains since March 2026 and have launched successful counter-attacks in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka and Lyman sectors. The most recent operation eliminated a Russian salient north of Lyman, disrupting Moscow’s plan to encircle the Donetsk “Fortress Belt” from the north and south.

Russian units continue to make limited advances around Kostyantynivka, east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but they are struggling to maintain momentum. The loss of the Lyman salient forces Russian commanders to reassess their campaign designs for both flanks of the Fortress Belt and may lead to a redeployment of elements of the 25th and 20th Combined Arms Armies.

According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, Russian generals have asked President Vladimir Putin for an additional 800,000 troops to sustain offensive operations after the September 2026 State Duma elections. He noted that current Russian casualty rates exceed daily recruitment, with about 60 % of casualties being fatal, a ratio far above the typical 1:3 wounded-to-killed standard.

Russia’s existing recruitment and training system can absorb only 300,000-500,000 new conscripts at a time, and the military is already facing administrative bottlenecks for ground forces and drone operators. Analysts expect any mobilization to be gradual and covert rather than a sudden large-scale call-up.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a trilateral meeting with Russia and the United States to restart peace talks, offering to attend the G20 summit in Miami if President Putin also participates. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov replied that Zelensky could travel to Moscow for a meeting.

The International Energy Agency reported that Ukrainian long-range strikes have further reduced Russia’s oil-processing capacity, now estimated at about four million barrels per day, a 30 % drop from pre-2022 levels. Precise attacks on refinery secondary-processing units have disrupted output and, combined with Western sanctions, are limiting Russia’s ability to repair damaged facilities.