Five NFL favorites face upset risk in Week 1
Analysts highlight five teams—San Francisco, Buffalo, Chicago, New York, and Denver—that could lose opening games despite being favored, citing travel, injuries and matchup concerns.
Week one of the 2026 NFL season could see several highly-rated teams stumble, according to odds and recent analysis. The San Francisco 49ers travel to Melbourne for a Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Rams, with the 49ers arriving a week early to acclimate while the Rams will land only a day before kickoff. Both clubs face a 17-hour time shift, and analysts note the Rams’ prior success in international games has been in London, not Australia.
Buffalo’s quarterback Josh Allen heads to Houston, where the Texans boast a strong defense and a revamped running game after adding running back David Montgomery and offensive-line pieces. Allen has struggled historically against Houston, posting a 0-4 record and low scoring averages in those matchups.
In Charlotte, the Chicago Bears travel to the Carolina Panthers, who have performed well as home underdogs this season. The Panthers’ offseason acquisitions of edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd could pressure Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, whose passing accuracy was among the league’s lowest last year.
The New York Jets open against the Tennessee Titans with veteran quarterback Geno Smith replacing Justin Fields. The Jets also added linebackers Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, while the Titans’ rookie quarterback Cam Ward showed modest preseason numbers.
Denver visits Kansas City for a Monday night game, where the Chiefs rely on Patrick Mahomes returning from a season-ending knee injury. Concerns remain about Mahomes’ mobility and the protection of left tackle Josh Simmons, who may miss the opener due to a back injury. The Broncos, noted for a league-best 131 sacks over the past two seasons, could test the Chiefs’ offensive line.
"Left tackle Josh Simmons may not be ready to go for the opener," Chiefs coach Andy Reid told reporters.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook show the 49ers at +172, Texans at +102, Panthers at +138, Jets at +104 and Broncos at +120, indicating that each matchup could produce an upset despite the favorites’ reputations.