Russian milbloggers flag Ukrainian gains near Lyman and criticize official reports

Russian social-media analysts said Ukrainian troops have been counter-attacking near Lyman for months and that Russian forces have withdrawn from several forward positions, challenging the optimistic assessments posted by Russian military officials. They also noted that Ukraine recently recaptured Svyatohirsk, a settlement that President Vladimir Putin had claimed was under Russian control, and warned that inaccurate Russian reports hinder fire-mission planning and could mislead neighboring units.

The Institute for the Study of War said the exact front line in the Lyman sector remains unclear, but expects further evidence to reveal the full extent of Ukrainian gains. In parallel, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported a budget deficit of 5.8 trillion rubles for January-August 2026, 1.5 times higher than the same period in 2025, driven by rising expenditures—particularly defense-related contracts—and falling oil and gas revenues. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government is not considering tax hikes and that the deficit should not alarm the public because the economy remains stable.

Russia’s central bank outlined three economic scenarios for 2027-2029, including a “pro-inflationary” path forecasting 4.5-5.5 % inflation and 1-2 % GDP growth in 2027, reflecting continued high inflation and weak growth amid expansionary war spending. President Putin has emphasized fighting inflation ahead of the State Duma elections.

State-owned Rostec launched an industrial marketplace intended to help companies source defense-related products such as counter-drone systems and all-terrain vehicles. The platform, described in a company statement, lists over 1,250 civilian items from more than 180 firms, with the majority of applicants being Russian corporations.

Separately, Russian officials said private enterprises and regional authorities lack clear guidance on acquiring air-defense measures, prompting the new marketplace. Governor Dmitry Atryukhov reported that Russian air defenses shot down a drone over Novy Urengoy, though footage showed smoke from a nearby condensate plant, underscoring ongoing gaps in protecting industrial sites deep inside Russian territory.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Russian forces have suffered over 1.5 million casualties since the invasion began in February 2022, roughly 1 % of Russia’s population, while Russian territorial gains remain modest. In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian troops continued limited offensives but faced Ukrainian counter-attacks, and claims of encircling Ukrainian units were disputed by multiple sources. In Donetsk, Russian glide-bomb strikes injured civilians in Kramatorsk, and Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of using drones to hunt civilians in Druzhkivka.

Overall, the latest assessments indicate that Ukrainian counter-offensives are pressuring Russian positions in several sectors, while Russia’s war-driven fiscal policies are widening the budget gap and limiting economic growth.