Putin's approval ratings slip to mid-60s amid growing war fatigue, experts say

State-run polling agencies reported that President Vladimir Putin's approval rating has dropped to roughly 65%, down from a peak of 89% before the invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest VTsIOM survey. The Public Opinion Foundation, which also conducts Kremlin-commissioned polls, noted a decline in support for Putin's performance from 71% to 66% in July, marking the steepest fall since the 2022 anti-draft protests.

Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, said the downward trend suggests that officials within the Kremlin may be using poll data to signal the need for a change in war strategy. > "We’ve seen support for Putin waning, albeit marginally, but it shows that his critical decisions in the war are forcing pollsters to show the active decline," she told the publication. She added that the polls may be a way for insiders to convey that public interest in the war is decreasing.

Trust in Putin also fell, with VTsIOM reporting a drop from 76.7% to 71% since mid-June. Independent surveys by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia showed even lower trust levels, with only 39% of respondents in Krasnodar and 37% in Rostov naming Putin as the politician they trusted most.

Analysts said the war’s fifth year has heightened economic strain, citing increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and online retailers, gas shortages and the impact of Western sanctions. John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia program, noted a strong public desire to end the conflict but said it is unlikely to trigger major unrest or a coup.

Hardie and Stepanenko observed that Putin appears to be moderating actions that could provoke further dissent, such as his reversal on taking control of Telegram and the decision not to repeat the 2022 draft. They suggested the president may wait until after the September elections before announcing any new mobilization measures. Kaupo Rosin, director general of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, described Putin’s hold on power as the most delicate it has ever been.