Pediatricians Warn of Rising Disease Risk as Childhood Vaccination Rates Slip

Vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergarteners has dropped to 92.4% for measles and 92% for diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis, down from about 95% in 2019-20, according to CDC data. Pediatric hospitalist Dr. Alok Patel of Stanford Children’s Health said the decline puts many communities below the 95% herd-immunity threshold needed to prevent measles outbreaks, noting that some counties have rates in the mid-70s.

Patel warned that reduced coverage could allow measles, which is highly contagious, to re-emerge and may also lead to increases in tetanus, pertussis, mumps, rubella, Haemophilus influenzae type b and hepatitis B. He highlighted that hepatitis B infection in infancy raises the risk of chronic liver disease and liver cancer later in life.

Columbia University pediatrician Dr. Melissa Stockwell added that rebuilding vaccination rates takes time, especially when public trust in health authorities has eroded. She cited the United Kingdom’s experience of cyclical drops and recoveries in coverage as an example of how quickly rates can fall and how slowly they can rebound.

Pediatric critical-care physician Dr. Anita Patel emphasized that children who contract vaccine-preventable illnesses may suffer long-term complications, including chronic lung disease, post-traumatic stress and other sequelae from intensive care stays.

The experts stressed that the trend is driven in part by an increase in non-medical exemptions and misinformation about vaccine safety. They called for renewed public-health communication and equitable access to vaccines to protect vulnerable populations and prevent a resurgence of diseases that have been largely controlled for decades.