Ukraine's drone campaign intensifies pressure on Russia ahead of parliamentary elections

Ukraine has increased its use of unmanned aerial vehicles to strike Russian targets, including oil refineries and e-commerce facilities, intensifying pressure on Moscow's economy and security apparatus. Data from the Associated Press, based on Russian sources, shows that 43,000 drones were intercepted over Crimea in the past three months, compared with 7,700 in the previous year.

The attacks have hit several major refineries, such as Bashneft-Novoil, Slavneft-Yanos, Norsi and others in regions far from the front line, disrupting fuel processing that underpins Russia's export earnings. Kazakhstan has begun importing Russian crude for refining and returning most of it to Russia, according to its energy minister.

Domestic impacts include longer queues for gasoline and heightened public unease. Retiree Margarita told AP, “We were living a normal life, and then suddenly it’s like this.” A poll by the Levada Center shows President Putin’s approval falling from 87% to 76% since September of the previous year.

Analysts note that the Kremlin is relying more on the Federal Security Service and that public dissent appears to be growing. “People are grumbling more, they’re talking more,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd.

Russia is scheduled to hold State Duma elections in September, the first since the invasion began. While United Russia is expected to retain a majority, observers say the process could face unexpected challenges. Senior research fellow Nikolay Petrov told AP, “Elections are a time when people should reflect on themselves, the country, where it’s going and what to do about it.”

Western estimates suggest Russian military casualties are around 6,000 per week, and about 700,000 potential conscripts have left the country, raising questions about future mobilization plans. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian airspace could be effectively closed to commercial flights, stating, “For now, the skies over Russia are for drones—not for civilian aviation.”