Atlantic hurricane season sees slowest start in decades amid El Niño influence
Only three short-lived tropical storms have formed by late August, making the 2026 Atlantic season the slowest-starting on record since 1988, a pattern linked to a strengthening El Niño.
The Atlantic basin has recorded just three tropical storms this year, totaling about 4.5 days of activity, according to Colorado State University. The most notable was Tropical Storm Arthur in mid-June, which caused flooding in the Deep South after weakening to a remnant low. Subsequent systems, Tropical Storm Bertha and Tropical Storm Cristobal, produced limited rain and dissipated within a day.
Two tropical waves last week approached tropical-depression strength but were disrupted by strong wind shear and dry air, preventing the formation of the next named storms, Dolly and Edouard. As a result, the National Hurricane Center’s outlook map shows only scattered chances of development, including an unusual area northwest of Portugal.
Statistically, the fourth named storm usually appears by August 15 and the first hurricane by August 11, so the season is not far behind those averages. However, when measured by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)—which accounts for storm duration and intensity—the 2026 season ranks as the slowest start since 1988, with only four earlier seasons (1988, 1984, 1977, 1967) posting slower early-season ACE values.
If no additional named storm forms in the first week of September, the season could set a new record for the slowest start in the satellite era, surpassing the 1966 benchmark. Historically, September marks the peak of Atlantic activity as sea-surface temperatures rise and atmospheric conditions become more favorable.
Meteorologists attribute the current lull largely to an intensifying El Niño, which increases wind shear across the Atlantic and hampers storm development. Historical data show that during strong El Niño years, September typically yields only a single hurricane.
While a quiet early season reduces overall risk, experts warn that a single landfalling storm or a slow-moving, rain-producing tropical system can still cause significant impacts. Residents are advised to maintain preparedness plans throughout the hurricane season.